So here\u2019s where I lay out my predictions for two days hence\u2026<\/p>\n
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Obama wins re-election. He’ loses Florida and North Carolina, and wins the rest of the toss-ups, for over 300 EVs. If he has a good night, he\u2019ll pick up Florida. He wins Minnesota by 5-6 points.<\/p>\n
In Congress, Democrats retain the majority in the Senate, with the Republicans blowing a historic opportunity to retake the majority by failing to learn the lessons of 2010: nominating Tea Party crazies means you lose. In the House, Democrats gain some seats but not enough to get a majority.<\/p>\n
Statewide, all Congressional incumbents are re-elected save for Chip Cravaack. I\u2019d desperately like to be wrong about Michele Bachmann, but in her new district she has too much of an edge. Voter ID passes barely, and I truly hope that the marriage amendment fails by a slim margin.<\/p>\n
In the state legislature, Democrats pick up a few seats in the house, but not enough to reach a majority. A 67-67 tie is not out of the question. As for the senate, they are the lesser body; I have little interest in them. Maybe some people win seats or something?<\/p>\n