I don’t think President Obama, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, or other Democratic leaders in Congress are poker players. I think they’d be much better politicians if they were. If they were regular poker players, they’d understand that Obama and Democrats are now “pot-committed”, and folding their hand is the worst mistake they can make. Sadly, early reaction from the election yesterday seems to indicate they are all too willing to get up and walk away, guaranteeing defeat.
In poker, you are said to be pot-committed when you put the vast majority of your chips in the pot already, so that it is inevitable that you will need to eventually go all-in. If you’ve got $3,000, you bet $2,900, and your opponent raises, you are pot-committed: folding instead of putting in your last $100 is an idiotic move even if your cards absolutely suck. This is precisely the hand that Obama and Democrats have. They ran on a message of doing things differently in Washington, and passing health care reform. True, they have certainly made a giant mess of everything, and it is mainly the fault of Obama, Reid, and Pelosi. However, giving up at this point is suicide. It’s folding your cards, and when you fold, you have a zero percent chance of winning. At least if you get all your money in, you have a shot. Maybe not a great shot, but a shot.
Democrats have two options now. The first is to pass a health-care reform bill (even the crappy Senate one), and a few other bills that tangibly benefit voters and tap into their anger. They can then say to the American people, “This is what we’ve done in two years. If you like it, vote for us, if you don’t, vote for them.” There’s a chance that voters won’t like it, but at the same time, it shows voters that Democrats can govern at least somewhat. The other option is to give up and pass nothing meaningful, and then say to the American people, “Vote for us despite having accomplished nothing in two years with the Democrats firmly in control of Congress and the White House.”
One of those options has a chance of working, the other one does not. Only a fool would choose to fold when all of his chips are on the line.
Later, I’ll talk about how terrible Congressional Democrats have been on messaging.